One video a day: the best bet first, then the rest of the props, the home run picks and the Ladder.
Six props for NLCS Game 2 and ALCS Game 1, two home run picks and the Ladder on day two, all in Monday's video.
Two to four plus-money home run picks a day, flat 0.25 units each, kept on their own record. Today’s are in the video; the last graded day is below.
Monday, October 12 · 2 picks at 0.25 units each
| Batter | Matchup | Ballpark | Price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Junior Caminero | TB vs Foster Griffin | Tropicana Field | +475 | L |
| Will Smith | LAD vs Logan Henderson | American Family Field | +569 | L |
Every morning before first pitch I post a short card of five to eight MLB player props and best bets. I say what sold me on each one, in plain language, so you can check my work instead of taking my word for it.
Every pick is sized. Some are 1u, some are 0.25u, and the size tells you how much I actually believe it. A 0.25u is me saying the number looks off but I am not confident enough to lean on it.
There is also a Parlay of the Day, and it is built from legs already on the card. It is not a separate set of picks I dreamed up to fill space.
The home run picks sit on this page too, sized at 0.25u, with their own record that never mixes into the Board’s. The Ladder and the DFS lineups each have their own page.
Every hitter on the slate gets ranked on two things: the simulation’s home run chance for that day, and a support score built from barrel rate, expected slugging, hard-hit rate, home run rate, last-15-games form, the pitcher he faces and the ballpark.
The bar: a simulated home run chance of 15% or better, a support score of 70 or higher, plus money at a real book, and in the lineup. Two to four names clear it on a normal day. If only two clear it, you get two.
The home run picks are down 1.34 units. The record is 15-69. Both of those belong in the same sentence.
At these prices the win rate is the wrong lens. A winner comes back several times the stake while every miss costs the same flat 0.25 units, so long quiet stretches are normal. If the units go negative, the number above goes negative and stays there. A scratched hitter is a void, not a loss.
Every leg gets graded in public the next morning at the price I posted, not at a better number I found later. If it lost, it sits on the record as a loss.
Read that record with the sample size sitting next to it. It is not enough to prove anything about a process, and I am not going to pretend otherwise. A good run this short can happen to anyone.
I have also tracked the game-time price on every leg since August 22. About half of my posted prices ended up better than the price at first pitch. That is a coin flip, not evidence of an edge. I still watch that number hardest, because it is the one I cannot talk my way around.
21 and over. This is entertainment and opinion, not financial or betting advice. A pick being mine does not make it right.
The card posts every morning with full breakdowns, the comments carry every update before first pitch, and results go up the next day — good and bad.
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