| Play | Prop | Game | First pitch | Odds | Stake | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Tyrone Taylor | Over 0.5 hits + runs + RBI | MIL@CHC | 7:40 ET | -169 | 1.5u |
| 2 |  Zack Gelof | Over 0.5 hits + runs + RBI | ATH@TEX | 8:05 ET | -159 | 1u |
| 3 |  Taj Bradley | Over 5.5 strikeouts | DET@MIN | 7:40 ET | +102 | 0.75u |
| 4 |  Rafael Devers | Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI | SF@ATL | 6:05 ET | -120 | 0.5u |
| D1 | Pete Crow-Armstrong | Home run | MIL@CHC | 7:40 ET | +300 | 0.25u |
| D2 | Alex Bregman | Home run | MIL@CHC | 7:40 ET | +517 | 0.25u |
| D3 |  Tristan Peters | Home run | CWS@HOU | 8:10 ET | +870 | 0.25u |
Parlay of the Day: Taylor, Gelof and Bradley — pays about +379. The Dingers are swings, not locks — separate record, sold honestly.
Taylor is the one I'd defend hardest. Platoon bats get mispriced because the public number averages his starts together with the nights he came off the bench for a single swing, and those nights drag it into the fifties. Split those out and he's at 70 percent for the season and 90 percent over his last twenty starts. The Cubs sit Ian Happ against left handers specifically to get Taylor in there, and he rewards it, .315 with five homers off lefties against .223 off righties. Milwaukee starts Kyle Harrison. Add the wind blowing out at Wrigley and the whole thing lines up. He's at -169 one place and -220 to -225 everywhere else, which tells you which book is pricing him off the raw number.
Gelof, the number is the number, 82 percent of his starts. The pushback is deGrom and I get it. But deGrom in 2026 is a 4.21 ERA pitcher allowing more hits per start than at any point in his career, and Gelof has kept it up since he came back off the injured list, 74 percent over nineteen starts. This one only needs a single thing to happen across four or five trips to the plate.
Bradley is the only strikeout number I'd touch tonight. He's over five and a half in seventeen of twenty six, his last ten reads ten, six, six, five, ten, two, seven, three, seven, eleven, and Detroit whiffs more than a league average lineup. The reason I'm on him and not Aaron Nola, who has better strikeout numbers than anybody on this slate, is that Nola is facing Arizona and Arizona is twenty ninth out of thirty at striking out. Great arm, wrong night.
Devers is a split play, plain and simple. He's a completely different hitter against right handed pitching, .290 with twenty four homers, versus .181 with almost no power off lefties. Atlanta starts a righty. His season rate on this exact number is the soft part and that's why it's the smallest thing on the card instead of the biggest.
On the Dingers, two of the three are in the same game because Wrigley is the best home run park on the board tonight with the wind out. The third one is in Houston on purpose, because I don't want three swings riding on one game.
Grades in the morning, win or lose, same as always.
