The Board Tuesday, September 1, 2026

Vargas is the one I like most. He's picked up a hit or better in nine of his last ten games and 67 percent across the whole season, so this isn't a two week hot streak. Houston runs Ronel Blanco out there carrying a 7.71 earned run average. The honest caution is that Vargas does more damage against left handed pitching than right, and he gets a righty, which is why he's a full unit and not more.

Luzardo is the arm and he's the only strikeout number I'd touch tonight. Twenty one of twenty seven starts over five and a half, and the shape matters more than the rate: nine or more punchouts in six of his last ten, so he isn't scraping past this line, he's blowing through it. Now the part nobody else will tell you. Arizona strikes out less than any lineup in baseball against left handers, seventeen point seven percent against a league average near twenty three. I knocked his usual number down for that before I kept him and he still cleared. That discount is also why he's second on the card instead of first.

DeLuca and Caminero are the same idea from two angles. Sean Manaea is a swingman this year rather than a full starter and he rarely gets through five innings, which means the Tampa Bay order sees a bullpen early. The third and fourth hitters benefit most from that. DeLuca has a hit in nine of his last ten and Caminero has cleared his number in nine of ten.

Gimenez is four for seven lifetime off Gavin Williams and has never struck out against him. That's a tiny sample and I won't pretend otherwise. The reason he's here is the eight of his last ten. The history is a bonus, not the argument. Batting ninth is the thing that keeps him small.

Eldridge is the smallest thing on the card on purpose. Good hitter, good recent form, wrong night. He draws Paul Skenes, and a season long rate collected against everybody else doesn't really describe what happens against the best arm in the sport.

On the Dingers, all three are in different parks tonight, which is deliberate. Crow-Armstrong has eleven homers in his last fifteen and Wrigley has the wind blowing straight out. Cowser has four in his last forty three trips and he's hitting at Coors. Muncy has four in his last forty five and bats cleanup. One that didn't make it: Alejandro Kirk was the single likeliest hit on the whole board today, sixty nine percent on the season, and every book has him at -180 or worse. That's more than I'll pay for anything.

Grades in the morning, win or lose, same as always.