| Play | Prop | Game | First pitch | Odds | Stake | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Rafael Devers | Over 0.5 hits | SF@PIT | 6:40 ET | -172 | 1u |
| 2 |  Kaelen Culpepper | Over 0.5 hits | DET@MIN | 7:40 ET | -146 | 1u |
| 3 | Bryce Eldridge | Over 0.5 hits | SF@PIT | 6:40 ET | -160 | 0.75u |
| 4 |  Miguel Vargas | Over 0.5 hits | CWS@HOU | 8:10 ET | -174 | 0.75u |
| 5 |  Junior Caminero | Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI | NYM@TB | 6:40 ET | -126 | 0.75u |
| D1 |  Pete Crow-Armstrong | Home run | MIL@CHC | 7:40 ET | +375 | 0.25u |
| D2 | Alex Bregman | Home run | MIL@CHC | 7:40 ET | +700 | 0.25u |
Parlay of the Day: Devers, Eldridge and Caminero — pays about +360. The Dingers are swings, not locks — separate record, sold honestly.
Devers is the one I like most and the reason is the pitcher as much as the hitter. He hits .293 off right handed pitching with a .982 OPS, which is star level production against the hand he gets tonight, and Pittsburgh sends out Jared Jones, who has not gotten through five innings in most of his outings this year. So Devers sees him a couple of times and then he is into a bullpen. He has a hit in nine of his last ten games. He needs one knock.
Culpepper has the best raw number on the card. A hit in 81 percent of his games this season, .333 off righties, and Detroit starts one. The thing that keeps him at second instead of first is where he bats. Hitting eighth costs him roughly one trip to the plate compared to the guys at the top, and on a market that only asks for a single hit, trips to the plate are most of the bet.
Eldridge is the same game and the same pitcher as Devers, which is deliberate. If Jones is short again, both of them are seeing relief arms in the middle innings. He has a hit in nine of his last ten. He also came off the bereavement list last Thursday and has been in the four and five at bat role every night since, so this is not a part time bat working his way back.
Vargas is the thinnest thing here and I would rather say that than dress it up. A hit in nine of his last ten and seventeen of his last twenty is real, but he is priced within one cent of the most I will pay for anything, and a couple of books already have him at -199. If that is the only number you can find, let it go. He is the first one I would drop.
Caminero is the fun one. The Mets are opening with Justin Hagenman, who has thrown exactly one inning in the big leagues, so Tampa is looking at relief arms all night instead of a starter settling into a rhythm. Caminero hits .277 off righties and he has hit safely in fifteen straight games. He needs two out of hits, runs and RBIs combined.
Both Dingers are at Wrigley and that is not laziness, it is where the conditions are. The wind is blowing out at nine miles an hour and the park is playing about thirty percent friendlier to home runs than average today. Crow-Armstrong has eleven homers in his last fifteen games, which is the hottest stretch anybody on this board is carrying, and he leads off so nobody gets more swings. Bregman hit three out of that same yard on Sunday and has seven in his last fifteen, and +700 on a bat that hot is a genuinely long price.
Two things I passed on that are worth knowing. Dylan Cease at plus money to clear six and a half strikeouts looked like the best number on the board and I left it alone, because everything I trust about how deep he actually goes disagrees with the strikeout total. And Pete Alonso, five homers in his last fifteen and hitting in Coors, is priced as if the market already counted all of that. It had.
Every one of these gets graded on the record page tomorrow, sitting next to the exact price I posted it at. The whole season is there, pick by pick, going back to the first one. Go audit it.
