| Play | Prop | Game | First pitch | Odds | Stake | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Cody Freeman | Over 0.5 hits + runs + RBI | TB@TEX | 8:05 ET | -170 | 1u |
| 2 |  Michael Massey | Over 0.5 total bases | MIA@KC | 7:40 ET | -165 | 1u |
| 3 |  Jackson Chourio | Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI | MIL@CHC | 7:15 ET | -148 | 0.75u |
| 4 |  Oneil Cruz | Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI | SF@PIT | 12:35 ET | -127 | 0.75u |
| 5 |  Ian Happ | Over 0.5 total bases | MIL@CHC | 7:15 ET | -130 | 0.75u |
| D1 | Alex Bregman | Home run | MIL@CHC | 7:15 ET | +583 | 0.25u |
Parlay of the Day: Freeman, Massey and Chourio — pays about +327. The Dinger is a swing, not a lock — separate record, sold honestly.
Freeman is the one I like most. He hits left handed pitching at .333 with an .890 OPS and Texas draws Shane McClanahan tonight, so he gets exactly the matchup he wants. He has picked up a hit, a run or an RBI in 79 percent of his games and he is carrying a five game hitting streak. This is not a guy being asked to do something he is bad at.
Massey is two things stacked on top of each other. He is 20 for 51 over his last fifteen games, the hottest bat anywhere on this card, and Kansas City tonight is 99 degrees with the wind blowing out. Heat and wind both carry the baseball, and the market noticed too — the total on that game climbed this morning. He also has a hit in every game he has ever faced Sandy Alcantara.
Chourio is a 20 year old hitting .379 over two weeks with four homers in that stretch, batting second, facing a right hander he should handle. The 1.5 number is the harder bar, which is why the price is what it is, but he gets five trips to the plate most nights and that is most of the battle.
Cruz is about who is pitching as much as who is hitting. Pittsburgh drew a rookie right hander making one of his first starts, and Cruz punishes right handed pitching to the tune of an .842 OPS. He bats in the middle so he sees this guy twice, and he has cleared this number in eight of his last ten.
Happ is quietly the most reliable thing here. An .823 OPS against right handed pitching over 427 plate appearances is a big sample saying the same thing his last ten games say — he has reached base in nine of them. All he needs is one base.
One Dinger today instead of three, and it is Bregman again. He went out at Wrigley yesterday, he has seven homers in his last fifteen games, and the wind is blowing out at that same yard again tonight. Home run picks land about one time in three on a good day — that is the honest math on all of them — but a bat that hot in a park playing that big at +583 is the only swing today that was both hot and priced generously. Nobody else made the cut.
Why only five on the board? Because that is what held up. A few bats I liked on form got cut on the platoon split, every good pitcher number today was an under and we do not post unders, and the one strikeout over in our price range had the model nine points against it. Small card, clean reasons.
Every one of these gets graded on the record page tomorrow, sitting next to the exact price I posted it at. The whole season is there, pick by pick, going back to the first one. Go audit it.
