| Play | Prop | Game | First pitch | Odds | Stake | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Rafael Devers | Over 0.5 hits | SF@NYM | 7:10 ET | -167 | 1u |
| 2 |  Ezequiel Duran | Over 0.5 hits | TB@TEX | 8:05 ET | -174 | 1u |
| 3 |  Nolan McLean | Over 17.5 outs | SF@NYM | 7:10 ET | -141 | 1u |
| 4 |  Kaelen Culpepper | Over 0.5 hits | MIN@CWS | 7:40 ET | -165 | 1u |
| 5 |  Drake Baldwin | Over 0.5 hits | ATL@PHI | 6:40 ET | -174 | 0.75u |
| D1 |  Carter Jensen | Home run | TOR@KC | 8:10 ET | +432 | 0.25u |
| D2 |  Jackson Chourio | Home run | MIL@CIN | 6:10 ET | +388 | 0.25u |
Parlay of the Day: Devers, Duran and Culpepper — pays about +304. The Dingers are swings, not locks — separate record, sold honestly.
Devers is the one I like most, and the number that matters is .294 with a .988 OPS against right handed pitching over 397 trips to the plate. That is not a hot week talking, that is a skill, and the Mets send a right hander out tonight. Add seven homers in his last fifteen games and he is seeing the ball about as well as anyone on this card.
Duran is two things stacked. He is 20 for his last 54 with 34 total bases, the hottest stretch of anyone I am playing today, and underneath it he hits righties at .268 over a big sample. So the hot run is sitting on top of a real skill rather than replacing one. That game is under a roof, so weather cannot touch it either.
McLean is the one worth understanding properly. Most people price a pitcher off his average. His last ten starts are 18, 18, 18, 18, 19, 15, 18, 18, 18 and 21 outs. He does not drift around a mean, he goes exactly six innings and hands the ball over. The line is 17.5, so he clears it by a single out on a completely ordinary night. If that number were 18.5 I would not touch it, and that is the whole difference. San Francisco is also running out a lineup full of fill ins, in the most pitcher friendly park on the board.
Culpepper has a hit in 77 percent of his games this year, the best rate of anyone here, and he hits right handers at .300 with Chicago starting one. The thing I do not love is where he bats. He hit eighth on Tuesday and went hitless in five trips, so if he lands at the bottom again he sees fewer pitches. That is the risk, and it is why he is not higher.
Baldwin is the smallest play on the card and I would rather tell you the weak spot than hide it. He is a left handed hitter, a left hander is starting, and he hits .243 against them. What keeps him on at all is a 69 percent hit rate and three hits in six career trips off this exact pitcher. He is the first one I would cut.
Two Dingers today instead of three. Jensen has six homers in his last fifteen games and Kansas City tonight is 96 degrees with the wind blowing straight out and a game total of 10. He leads off, so he gets the most swings on the field. Chourio has four in fifteen and draws Cincinnati, which is the best home run park on the whole board. Home run picks land about one time in three on a good day, which is the honest math on all of them. Only two bats today were both genuinely hot and still priced above what the numbers say they are worth, so only two made it. Padding that to three is how you lose money on them.
The one that got away is worth saying out loud. There was a pitcher on this slate with a 96 percent record on his outs line and a thirteen game streak behind it, the prettiest row on the board by a mile. He is on the injured list and has not pitched since August 17. First start back off an injury is a coin flip on when the manager walks out there, so there is no play on either side of it. And the bat with the best season rate anywhere today got cut too, because he is 2 for 15 with ten strikeouts lifetime against tonight's starter.
Every one of these gets graded on the record page tomorrow, sitting next to the exact price I posted it at. The whole season is there, pick by pick, going back to the first one. Go audit it.
