| Play | Prop | Game | First pitch | Odds | Stake | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Elly De La Cruz | Over 0.5 hits | MIL@CIN | 12:10 ET | -160 | 1.5u |
| 2 |  Ozzie Albies | Over 0.5 hits | ATL@PHI | 1:10 ET | -175 | 1u |
| 3 |  Josh Bell | Over 0.5 hits | MIN@CWS | 6:20 ET | -168 | 1u |
| 4 |  Riley Greene | Over 0.5 hits, runs or RBI | DET@CLE | 1:40 ET | -169 | 1u |
| 5 |  Elias Díaz | Over 0.5 hits, runs or RBI | TB@TEX | 2:35 ET | -134 | 0.75u |
| D1 |  Carter Jensen | Home run | TOR@KC | 2:10 ET | +408 | 0.25u |
Parlay of the Day: De La Cruz + Albies + Bell · about +305.
Three for three last night. Today it is five on the Board and, unusually, only one Dinger.
De La Cruz is the one I feel best about and it comes down to a single number. He hits left-handed pitching at .346 with a 1.038 OPS across 155 trips to the plate, and Cincinnati is starting a lefty. That is not a hot week, that is most of a season. He also leads off, so nobody on this card sees more pitches. He has reached in 70 percent of his games.
Albies is the opposite kind of argument and I want to be plain about both halves of it. He is 19 for 70 lifetime off Aaron Nola over 75 trips, which is the longest head-to-head record on this card by a distance and a good one. He is also hitting only .228 off right-handers this season. Both things are true. That mix is why he is on the card and why he is not the top play.
Greene has the safest shape even though it is not the shortest price. A hit, a run, or a driven-in run, and he only needs one of the three. Batting fourth he gets RBI chances when the top of the order reaches and four swings of his own when it does not. He has managed it in 78 percent of his games.
Only one Dinger because only one earned it. I priced better than thirty home run numbers this morning and 27 of them sat at or worse than where they should be. Jensen was the exception: six homers in his last fifteen, leading off, in the biggest scoring spot on the slate. When they are not there, they are not there, and I would rather post one than pad it to three.
No first-inning play either. The best candidate was the Yankees and San Diego, where Gerrit Cole has not allowed a first-inning run in nine straight starts and Michael King has allowed one in nine. It still did not clear the second read, so it stays off.
