| Play | Prop | Game | First pitch | Odds | Stake | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Drake Baldwin | Over 0.5 hits | ATL@PHI | 1:05 ET | -165 | 1u |
| 2 |  Coby Mayo | Over 0.5 hits | CLE@BAL | 1:35 ET | -156 | 1u |
| 3 |  Elly De La Cruz | Over 0.5 hits | CIN@LAD | 9:10 ET | -156 | 1u |
| 4 |  Lawrence Butler | Over 0.5 hits | TOR@ATH | 10:05 ET | -140 | 0.75u |
| 5 | Grant Holmes | Over 14.5 outs | ATL@PHI | 1:05 ET | -135 | 0.75u |
| D1 | Zack Gelof | Home run | TOR@ATH | 10:05 ET | +700 | 0.25u |
| D2 |  Carter Jensen | Home run | AZ@KC | 2:10 ET | +475 | 0.25u |
| D3 | Sal Stewart | Home run | CIN@LAD | 9:10 ET | +475 | 0.25u |
Parlay of the Day: Baldwin + Mayo + Holmes · about +330.
Four of five last night. Five on the Board today and three Dingers.
Baldwin is the one I like most and it is a simple case. Philadelphia starts Jesus Luzardo, a left-hander, and Baldwin hits .247 off lefties over close to two hundred trips to the plate. On its own that number is unremarkable. Next to a hit in 71 percent of his games this season and 75 percent of his last twenty, it is enough. A few books have him up at -196 and I would leave him alone there.
Mayo is the one nobody is talking about, and he is the reason I do this by hand. His hit rate for the season is 59 percent, which looks ordinary and is not really about him. It blends how he hits right-handers with how he hits left-handers, and he is one of the most lopsided bats in the league. Split it out and he is hitting .321 against lefties with a 1.115 OPS and fifteen home runs in 144 trips. Cleveland starts Joey Cantillo, who is a lefty. The market is pricing the blended version.
Holmes is an outs line, which is really a question about how long Atlanta leaves him out there rather than how good his stuff is. They have let him finish five innings in sixteen of his twenty six starts and in seven of his last ten. One thing I will be straight about: his last time out he only recorded nine outs. I still like the number.
Butler and De La Cruz are the late two. Butler has reached in nine of his last ten and that game in Sacramento is the friendliest hitting environment on the whole slate, about a quarter more runs than a neutral park. De La Cruz is boring in the best way. He hits, he leads off, he has done it all year.
No first-inning play today. The best-looking candidate was Atlanta at Philadelphia, where the two starters have been close to airtight in the opening frame, but the second read had that same game at barely better than a coin flip. When the two disagree that far apart, the answer is nothing.
