| Play | Prop | Game | First pitch | Odds | Stake | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  HOU Isaac Paredes | Over 0.5 hits | HOU@TB | 1:40 ET | -165 | 1u |
| 2 |  Alex Bregman | Over 0.5 hits | PIT@CHC | 2:20 ET | -154 | 1u |
Two legs today, so no Parlay of the Day. Together they pay about +165.
No Dingers today. The top home run bats on the board were all priced at or past their real chance of going deep, so there was nothing worth taking.
Christian Scott would have led the card on a Yankees lineup that strikes out a quarter of the time, but the Mets are cutting his workload this month, so he is off.
Two on the board and both of them are bats. Fifteen games, and most of what looked good this morning was already priced right where it should be.
Isaac Paredes is the best bet. He has a hit in seven of his last eight and sixty seven percent of his games on the year, and he strikes out thirteen percent of the time against right handers, so the ball is going in play. Freddy Peralta is the arm, a 4.82 ERA with a .255 average against, and the game is under a roof. The total in that game has already moved up half a run.
Alex Bregman is the second leg. Twelve of his last fifteen with a hit and sixty seven percent on the season. Bubba Chandler carries a 1.34 WHIP, so there will be traffic. He is second and not first because of Wrigley: the wind is blowing in from the north and the total is sitting at six and a half.
The one I wanted most was Christian Scott over five and a half strikeouts. The Yankees strike out about a quarter of the time and he had seven, six and seven in three of his last four. The Mets are cutting his workload this month in his first year back from Tommy John, so that line is off. A handful of hitters with strong hit rates, Nathan Church, Liam Hicks, Elly De La Cruz and Brandon Marsh among them, were priced right on top of what they actually do, and Angel Martinez is 0 for 9 lifetime against Joe Ryan.
