Every home run pick on this page, with the reasoning said out loud.
The dingers are up 4.40 units. The record is 6-24. Both of those are true and they belong in the same sentence.
At these prices the win rate is the wrong lens. The median price on a dinger has been +475, so a winner comes back several times the size of the stake while every miss costs the same flat 0.25 units. It takes a handful of those winners to cover the twenty-odd misses sitting around them, and some stretches never get there.
I post the record anyway, because a page that shows you units and buries the losses is selling you something. Six for thirty is what shopping at +300 to +870 actually looks like from the inside.
Every hitter on the slate gets ranked on two things. First, the simulation’s home run probability for that day. Second, a support score.
The support score is built from barrel rate, expected slugging, hard-hit rate, home run rate, last-15-games form, the pitcher he is facing (home runs allowed per nine and barrel rate allowed), and the ballpark’s home run factor.
The bar to make the page: a simulated home run chance of 15% or better, a support score of 70 or higher, and confirmed in the lineup. Two to four names come out of that. If only two clear it, you get two.
That last part matters more than it sounds. Padding to four on a thin slate means running out a name I do not believe in, and that name costs you the same 0.25 units as a good one.
Every dinger is flat 0.25 units. No laddering up after a loss, no tripling the one I like best because I like it best.
If a hitter is scratched, the pick is voided, not scored as a loss. He never came to the plate, so it never counted.
The dinger record is its own record. It does not touch the Board’s record, and the Board does not carry these. Two products, two ledgers, and I will not blend them to make either one look better.
Long quiet runs are normal here. Most days end with nothing, and a week of nothing sits inside the range, not outside it.
Home runs are the highest-variance thing on a baseball slate. The price is the whole reason to be here, and the price is also why the misses stack up in a row.
If the units go negative, the number at the top of this page goes negative and stays there. That was the deal when this was three tiles on the main card, and it is still the deal now that it has its own page and its own video.
21 and over. This is entertainment and opinion. My reasoning is written out so you can check it, disagree with it, and pass on any pick you do not like.
I am not selling a system that beats the book, and I would not believe anyone who told you they had one. Past units say what has already happened, not what happens tomorrow.
This is not financial advice or betting advice. Do not risk money you need. If one losing week would change anything about your month, skip this page.
Every pick and every result goes up on all of it, good and bad. Pick whichever one you already open.
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